Used Car market in South Africa to lead the best way beyond recession
The worst is apparently over. Used Car dealers who’ve been through a torrid time during the past 18 months can expect circumstances to improve as the year progresses, with the used car market leading the way expected improved sales volumes in the coming months would enable the battered dealer market to restore profitable growth and rebuild their balance sheets, provided Used Car Dealers managed the anticipated uptick without incurring additional overheads.
This optimistic evaluation of trends in the used and new car markets on data drawn from information on almost 12-million vehicles obtained from manufacturers, importers and distributors of over 100 vehicle marques, along with 53 financial providers and 35 000 dealer submissions received each month.
Substantial boost in finance registrations
Indications associated with a turnaround in the Used Car market, underscored by the fact that statistics for new car sales relating to the first two months of 2010 were 18,% in front of the corresponding two months last year, was based on increasing volumes of vehicle finance registrations data for both new and used Cars.
Together, new and used vehicle finance registrations were up by 29% year-on-year in January, and 10% year-on-year in February.
Used vehicle financing registrations alone were up 18% and 15% during the first two months of 2010 respectively.
Expectation is that this trend will continue based upon the fact that that although ındividuals are remaining cautious, the benefits of stabilised affordability are beginning to be felt.
Basically, consumers who may have managed to maintain their heads above water during the worst of the crisis should soon start taking advantage of the lower interest rates; the fact that new car inflation is starting to decline while used car inflation remains flat at zero percent; the slightly improved accessibility to bank credit; and the point that consumers appear to have been paying down their existing debt and for that reason their appetite for incurring new debt is returning slowly
‘Value Gap’ widens
Expectations this build-up of latent demand will initially be mostly evident in the used market with consumers picking used as compared with new vehicles based on both affordability and value considerations.
Value Gap widened between new and used cars within the 18 months to mid 2009, as new vehicle prices rose and also the equity used vehicles fell. This divergence appears to have made used vehicles relatively more desirable coming from a value-for-money perspective.
Lately, however, this gap has begun to close given that the supply of good quality, low mileage, used vehicles is actually tight. Nevertheless, it’s expected the value gap to remain to the foreseeable future, even though the pendulum will swing back towards new eventually.
Within the used market, expectation of highest demand – in addition to a slight appreciation in prices – for cars in the R50 000 to R150 000 segment.
Future trends into 2010
However, the shortage of good quality, low-mileage, affordable used cars will probably lead to yet another narrowing in the ratio between used and new sales. This ratio happens to be on a downward track since November, after hitting a healthy of 2.4 (one new to 2.4 used cars) in June. The ratio fell to 2.1 in November and further to 1.83 in February.
Given the actual price difference between new and used cars, the ratio of used to new sales might possibly be higher if the method of getting quality used cars improved.
Anticipation that availabilit of quality used cars would improve after the FIFA World Cup due to rental de-fleeting, the marketplace could easily absorb these additional units.
While January and February’s new car sales were being supported by rental purchases pre-World Cup – rental purchases accounted for 15% of February’s new passenger sales and 12% in January – the rental companies were unlikely to raise the size of their fleets dramatically for this soccer showpiece.
Latest media reports suggest that fewer international visitors were expected than had originally been anticipated.
With domestic business travel, which generally accounts for most within the domestic rental market likely to end up significantly curtailed through the World Cup, rental companies would largely have capacity to deal with soccer tourists without significantly increasing the size of their fleets.
There is no doubt that they may downsize their fleets following on from the World Cup, ameliorating the current stock shortage to some extent. The effect on used prices, however, is likely to be negligible.
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